戴维多美元对COVID-19的经济影响

       2020-02-14       上海美国商会       2020-02-14 16:30:48

David Dollar is a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and a leading expert on the Chinese economy and U.S.-China economic relations. He served as the U.S. Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China from 2009 to 2013. How effective have the Chinese government’s immediate economic policies in reaction to the epidemic been in supporting economic growth and mitigating damage? What will they do next? Will we see corporate tax cuts or more interest rate reductions? It is too soon to tell what the hit to growth will be, but probably we will see a sharp slowdown in the first quarter. I support the government’s moves to keep banks lending, especially to SMEs that are hard hit by the temporary shutdowns. There are likely to be further bankruptcies and defaults in 2020, so the authorities are walking a fine line between excessive largesse and excessive stringency....

杜大伟是布鲁金斯学会约翰桑顿中国中心的高级研究员,也是中国经济和美中经济关系方面的主要专家。2009年至2013年,他担任美国财政部驻中国经济和金融特使。中国政府应对疫情的直接经济政策在支持经济增长和减轻损害方面的效果如何?接下来他们会怎么做?我们会看到企业减税或更多的降息吗?现在说增长将受到什么样的冲击还为时过早,但我们可能会看到第一季度经济急剧放缓。我支持政府保持银行贷款的举措,尤其是对受到临时关闭严重打击的中小企业。2020年可能会有更多的破产和违约,因此当局在过度慷慨和过度严厉之间走上了一条细线……

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