IIF白皮书国别干预:美国国别制裁俄罗斯

       2020-02-19       国际金融协会       2020-02-19 20:00:43

Economic sanctions are a critical element of the foreign policy toolkit of both national governments and international bodies. Their value lies in the fact that they are perceived to be a lower-cost and lower-risk way to change another country’s behavior compared to, alternatively, some form of military action. However, sanctions are a form of government market intervention and can have significant unintended and uncertain consequences—particularly if they are placed on an economy highly integrated into the global economy and the international financial system. In this respect, the measures taken by the United States and its allies against Russia beginning in 2014 represented a paradigm shift. They proved to be effective in limiting the flow of foreign funding into the country, forcing substantial fiscal adjustment and the deleveraging of corporates. Partially as a result of sanctions, GDP growth has remained underwhelming for many years.

经济制裁是各国政府和国际机构外交政策工具包中的一个重要组成部分。他们的价值在于,与某种形式的军事行动相比,他们被认为是改变另一个国家行为的一种低成本、低风险的方式。然而,制裁是政府市场干预的一种形式,可能会产生重大的意外和不确定的后果,特别是如果制裁被置于一个高度融入全球经济和国际金融体系的经济体上。在这方面,美国及其盟国从2014年开始对俄罗斯采取的措施代表了一种范式转变。事实证明,它们有效地限制了外国资金流入中国,迫使企业进行实质性的财政调整和去杠杆化。部分由于制裁,国内生产总值(GDP)增长多年来一直处于低迷状态。

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