朱利安·埃文斯·普里查德的七个问题

       2020-05-22       上海美国商会       2020-05-22 15:30:41

In the days before the Lianghui, we spoke to Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics about the prospects for China’s economy in the year ahead. Q1: What are the primary strengths and weaknesses of China’s economy today? Are their areas of concern or optimism that are not getting attention? Barring a second outbreak, the Chinese economy is past the worst. That said, it is still a very uneven recovery. Industrial production was up year-on-year in April, but partly due to political pressure on firms to resume production. The sharp jump in inventories in the past couple of months suggests that output is running well ahead of demand, and that the recovery in demand has remained much weaker. The only areas on the demand side that have returned to growth are infrastructure and property investment. The rest is still very weak, and manufacturing investment is deeply negative in year-on-year terms – unsurprising given the poor outlook for exports....

在两会会前的几天,我们与资本经济学的朱利安·埃文斯·普里查德(Julian Evans Pritchard)就未来一年中国经济的前景进行了交谈。问题1:今天中国经济的主要优势和劣势是什么?他们关注的领域或乐观的领域是否没有引起注意?除了第二次爆发,中国经济已经过了最糟糕的时期。也就是说,经济复苏仍然很不平衡。4月份工业生产同比增长,但部分原因是政治压力迫使企业恢复生产。过去几个月库存的急剧增长表明,产出远远超过了需求,需求复苏仍然很弱。需求方面唯一恢复增长的领域是基础设施和房地产投资。其余的仍然很弱,制造业投资与去年同期相比严重负增长——鉴于出口前景不佳,这不足为奇……

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